Oil Prices are Down, but Ohio Still Looks Strong
Oil prices slipped again this week, and some analysts are calling it an oversupply issue. That’s true at the national level, but the picture in Ohio is a lot more balanced than most people realize.
Right now, oil is hovering around $57–$60 per barrel. That’s a slight drop, but from a development standpoint, it’s still a perfectly workable price. In fact, most Utica type curves are built using $60 oil assumptions. Operators can run strong, economic wells at that level.
What’s more interesting is what’s happening on the natural gas side. Gas has climbed into the mid-$4 range as we head into winter, a price that we haven’t seen in a year and a half. That creates a rare inverse: oil softening while gas strengthens.
In the Utica, that flexibility matters.
Oil Is Softening, but Not Enough to Slow the Utica
At $60 oil, operators are still generating meaningful returns. The recent dip ties back to two things:
- Strong production out of the Permian
- The Saudis increasing output in Q2 and Q3
Those are real market pressures, but they’re not permanent. OPEC can shift policy with a single meeting, tightening supply and lifting prices.
The important point for landowners: This is not a price level that shuts rigs down in Ohio.
Natural Gas Prices Are Up, and That Could Shift Activity
Gas is the part of the story that deserves the most attention.
We’re above $4.50 right now, and the forward curve looks solid. For operators, $5 gas changes everything. It makes the eastern side of the Utica, already home to some of the best dry gas wells in the country, very attractive again.
We’re starting to see:
- New leasing in gas-heavy areas that have been quiet for years
- Small pockets being assembled for future drilling
- Early indications that operators may lean more heavily toward gas in 2026
For landowners in dry gas counties, this is a positive trend.
Why Ohio Is Uniquely Positioned
One of the advantages of the Utica is that it’s effectively “bookended” by two very different but very strong fairways:
- A proven dry gas window
- A proven condensate/oil window
That gives operators optionality. They can shift their rigs to whichever commodity makes the strongest returns at the moment.
Even if oil dropped into the low 50s or 40s, a level where you might expect operators to slow down, we’d likely see rig counts pulled back gradually, not full stops. Wells might get drilled and held, but the development doesn’t disappear.
Right now, we’re nowhere near that point.
Oversupply Is Short-Term. Demand Is Long-Term.
Oversupply is contributing to lower oil prices today, but demand over the next several years is projected to increase, especially for natural gas.
Growing data center usage, industrial loads, and LNG capacity all point to long-term demand strength. And oil demand isn’t going anywhere either. Transportation, aviation, diesel; those needs aren’t disappearing.
Energy remains essential for national security and everyday life. Oil is finite, gas is abundant, and both have a role to play.
Bottom Line for Ohio Landowners
The situation today is far from negative for the Utica:
- Oil price is still at economic levels
- Natural gas price is rising heading into winter
- Leasing activity is expanding into new pockets
- Operators have more flexibility here than in most shale plays
For mineral owners, that means your acreage remains valuable, and in some areas, more valuable than it’s been in recent years.
If you want to understand what this market shift means for your specific acreage, or whether selling all or a portion of your minerals makes sense, we’re always available.
Talk to a Local Landman
Call (330) 205-5038 or request an evaluation at https://gatewayroyaltyllc.com/get-started.
Even if you’re not selling, we’ll help you understand your lease.
