As this year winds down, landowners in Eastern Ohio are already asking what 2026 may look like for drilling, rig counts, and operator activity. A lot can change in a year, but the early signals in the Utica Shale are worth paying attention to, especially with gas prices rising and several large operators preparing to release their 2026 outlooks in February.
Here’s what landowners should know heading into next year.
Minimal Impact from the Government Shutdown
The recent shutdown made headlines, but from an energy standpoint, the practical impact on Ohio was limited.
The Utica is primarily a private-sector play, and shutdowns typically affect federal leasing, federal permitting, and federal workforce demand, not factors that move the needle here.
If anything, the most noticeable effect would have been small, short-term demand changes from reduced travel or commuting.
For landowners: The shutdown didn’t slow activity or change the outlook for Ohio.
Will Ohio’s Rig Count Increase in 2026?
Ohio has held steady at roughly 10–12 active rigs for quite a while. That stability has been good for predictable development, but the big question now is whether 2026 could see growth.
Based on what we know today:
- EOG now controls a significant number of unitizations in Ohio
- Many of those units still need drilled
- There are early rumors of EOG planning to add rigs
- A scenario with 5–6 EOG rigs next year isn’t out of the question
“With EOG acquiring Encino, they have so many unitizations out there that need to be permitted. We’ve heard rumblings that they’ll be adding rigs. I’d like to see them run five or six out there.”
Nothing is guaranteed, but the stack of un-drilled units is real, and rigs don’t sit idle when the forward curve for natural gas looks strong.
What Operators Will Signal in Early 2026
The first big moment of the year always comes in February, when public operators give their annual outlooks.
What we’re watching:
- EOG – Will they add rigs? How aggressively will they drill the condensate window?
- Gulfport – Could they bring a rig or two more? Will they balance Marcellus and Utica?
- Ascent – Private, but usually offers clues about rig strategy and development pace
- INR/Infinity – Focused position, likely steady
- Antero – Actively shopping their Ohio assets
Layer in the possibility of $5 natural gas if we get a cold winter, and 2026 could be a meaningfully more active year than 2024 or 2025.
“If gas averages $5 next year, it changes everything. It’s inevitable they’ll go drill.”
Potential Consolidation: Are More Transactions Coming?
The Encino – EOG transaction was one of the biggest moves in Ohio in years. But the reality is: there isn’t much consolidation left in the Utica.
Ohio now essentially has four major operators:
- EOG
- Gulfport
- Ascent
- INR/Infinity
Antero has acreage in Monroe, Noble, Guernsey, and Belmont, but it’s not a large, contiguous block like Encino’s was. Still, it’s on the market.
If Gas Stays Strong, Activity Will Follow
The biggest variable isn’t policy or consolidation, it’s gas price strength.
A meaningful rise in gas demand (AI-driven electricity load, industrial use, LNG expansion) could hold prices in the $4–$5 range.
If that happens:
- Drilling accelerates
- Leases expand, especially in dry-gas fairways
- Dormant acreage becomes valuable again
- Operators complete units that have been sitting on the books
“There’s just no way around it. If gas is $5, they’re going to drill.”
Bottom Line for Ohio Landowners
2026 has the potential to be an active year in the Utica, possibly more active than what we’ve seen since 2019.
For landowners in Carroll, Belmont, Harrison, Guernsey, Noble, Monroe, and Tuscarawas counties, it’s a good time to understand exactly where your minerals sit within operator plans.
If you want a data-driven look at your acreage, or want to understand whether selling all or a portion makes sense, Gateway Royalty can help.
Talk to a Local Landman
Call (330) 205-5038 or request an evaluation at http://gatewayroyaltyllc.com/get-started.
Even if you’re not selling, we’ll help you understand your lease.
